Positional Analysis pointless?

[valelli]

like you ive never got anywhere with positional analysis, hot or cold or any other so called latest hot system, ive won more on gut instinct than anything, I have now decided perhaps its time to think outside the box, I will let you know how i get on, and if anybody else has some obscure ideas maybe nows the time to try them out!!

[David]

I agree with Val regarding intuition although I take other factors into account as well e.g. frequencies, odds and evens and highs and lows.

I feel we sometimes tend to complicate things more than necessary and, yes, positional analysis has never been helpful to me.

[Frank]

Positional analysis is just one of dozens of methods you could have used and reached the same conclusion. The problem is all methods point to what is overdue and therefore due to appear. What they never can do is say when they are going to appear. Its just a blur, suggesting over the next 20 draws or so (varies with the statistic) that it should appear.
There is no doubt that the correct way to store result data is in drawn order, that way any statistics you do is on the actual events, not on a resorted representation of what happenned. Its true that many systems will not change the accuracy of a result regardless of order but all of these will be based on counting up the fact that a number or a pair, triple etc (or sum of them) turned up in a draw and creating a total which is independent of order.

There are two types of positional analysis I know of. As drawn positional analysis, and sorted positional analysis which is the one I think you refer to. The second one is more complex because it has to take into account the probability of a number appearing in a certain position after the numbers are sorted. A good example of this is the number 1, since the probability of it appearing in any position other than first after sorting is zero. You would not be at all surprised to hear that it appears most after sorting in 1st position ! This agrees with the fact that there are 1,712,304 posssible lottery tickets starting with a 1.

What about number 15 ? there are still 1,712,304 possible lottery tickets with 15 in there somewhere but the positional split of where 15 can be on the ticket goes like this :-

278,256-----649,264------544,544------204,204-------34034-------2002. Meaning that there are 278,256 possible tickets starting with 15 but there are 544,544 possible tickets with 15 in position 3. So that result is more likely than the former. Does Doctor Prof. Jones know this and take this into account ? You have to compare actual appearances in the position with theoretical appearance in the position to glean any insight into whether its underperforming or overperforming. In any case all frequencies over infinite time tend to move towards equality so I would suggest that if he thinks number 15 is doing better than it should in being in position 3 after sorting, then avoiding number 15 might be a better policy.

However, this brings us to the old chestnut , how far do we look back ? when do lottery results become stale ? Choosing this affects all methods of analysis and I'm not sure there is a right answer to this question, it would depend again on the statistic and the rarity of an event I suppose. Anyway I'm waffling now but what I'm trying to say is that all methods are valid provided you take everything into account, but they never give precise predictions, just an indication and may take a hundred draws to come to fruition. Like trying to predict pairs 6,7 which are five times overdue to be drawn, but with an expected cycle of 78 draws I predict they will turn up any time in the next... 78 draws.

Ah well, I suppose there is more money in waffling than there is actually using this stuff !

[David]

Thinking outside the box, Davey - isn't that what it's called?

Nevertheless, certain principles seem to apply fairly often e.g. odds and evens: either 3:3, 4:2, or 2:4. Yesterday it was 4 even and 2 odd. Rarely do we see 5:1, 1:5 or 6:0

Based on previous results I anticipated 4 even and two odd - sure enough up it came.

My six were: 11, 17, 31, 36, 39, 43 - I also chose 11, 16, 30, 35, 38, 42. Three correct hence

[valelli]

thats what Ive been trying to do davey, as I said hot cold due whats not due, positional all of that doesnt work, it will work occassionaly for the odd ten pound or 4 ball win, but nothing great, so what we have to do now is starting thinking differently, as with daily play i am looking at previous results for the hint, and what I am looking at is what comes out on different days, with daily you need to look at last weeks results, and for lotto and thunderball i am looking at previous wednesdays draws and previous saturday draws as two seperate occurances to see what is happening there, all ideas however strange may be the key.

[gcokwe]

I need prediction on uk49s lunch