UK lotto

[Moses]

(02-23-2016 01:47 AM)Frank Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 10:15 PM)Moses Wrote:  What amazes me is, you and others have not said one word about the identical repeated triples which I highlighted it in my earlier post which statistically impossible to be draw in such a way or even from the latest two draws two linked numbers 15,59 to be drawn in two draws on the row so what is the probability of that?
17/02/2016, 05,15,59,51,33,47,07
13/02/2016, 48,23,16,39,15,59,36

Isn’t it true the probability is 59x58 = 3422 but it occurred in two consecutive draws?????
Then repeated triples probability from 49 numbers lottery is 49x48x47 = 110544 but it is happening within 2000 draws over and over again??????????

Moses,

Let's get the statistics right here. For the number of pairs from 59 balls TAKING ACCOUNT OF ORDER, you have calculated the permutations correctly at 3422. However you have forgotten to mention that each draw of 7 balls creates 21 pairs. So thats 21 chances to try and match another pair elsewhere on every draw. So the odds of a repeated pair TAKING ACCOUNT OF ORDER is 3422/21 = 162.9 to 1. The fact that it ocurred two consecutive draws has no relevance, as the two draws are independent.

Regarding your statement that the repeated triples you mention are statistically impossible, I think you will find that if you download 2000 sets of 7 random numbers up to 49 (Random.org https://www.random.org/integer-sets/ ) select "print the sets in random order" and examine them as forensically as you examine the UK lottery you will find EXACTLY the same behaviour, the same number of triples matches IN ORDER throughout those results too. I know because I've done it. Note that if you have 2000 draws, you are comparing each draw with each of the 1999 other draws.This makes it possible to make 2,001,000 comparisons between draws. With such a huge number of comparisons you are bound to get a large number of EXACT IN ORDER matches. You are only dealing with odds of about a hundred and thirty to one.
Comparing within seven balls not six, actually makes it easier to find matches, not harder. The odds against matching three anywhere, any order are only 20.9 to 1 ! Then you have to get the order right which is six times harder still. Impossible odds ? No it's simply not true.

Frank
I agree with you let’s get statistics right BUT I cannot believe that man of science to make a silly mistake as you have done and even though you have made an error then you even dismissed it, why? (3422/21 = 162.9 to 1. The fact that it ocurred two consecutive draws has no relevance)
I would have hoped that you come back and confess to your mistake but I don’t think you really know the difference!

Let’s find your Error

Any 6 from 49 has 13,983,816 right?
Any 6 numbers has 21 wheels, we agree that much, yeah? Short example below

A – B – C – D – E – F – G

A – B
A – C
A – D
A – E
A – F
A – G etc

But and big BUT

A can only make linked -pair with B and not to others that’s what we call LINKED-PAIR
Therefore for A and B to be linked at all time there can only cover 7 possible positions

A – B
X – A – B
X – X – A – B
X – X – X – A – B
X – X – X – X – A – B
X – X – X – X – X – A – B
X – X – X – X – X – X – A – B

So, there are only 7 possible positions available to be covered therefore 3422/7 = 488.8 to 1 which means in every 488 draws (almost 1/5 of the total current draws) we should witness one linked-pair to be repeated in one of the 7 possible positions.
BUT if the linked-pair are drawn in exact location or the same position then 3422/1 = 3422 to 1

Now the same calculation applies for linked-triples and if they are repeated in exact location then that triple are standing chance (from field of 49 numbers) 110544 to 1

Do you understand your mistake Frank?
We are not talking about any pairs or triples anywhere within one sequence as we are talking about LINKED or chained strings of numbers to be drawn in exact locations then the possibility of that should be impossible to happen within 2000 draws. Am I right or am I right?
Please do not come back and say I am wrong, having said all of these I have never seen you on my side to approve what I say is correct but I found you always in favour of Camelot and always been on their defensive side which makes me wonder!

Have a nice day
Moses

P.S. I can give you some homework if I may, can you tell me how many repeated linked-pairs and triples you can find in history of lotto results either in exact locations or one of other 7 possible locations?
Thanks