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**Frank** · (This post was last modified: 10-16-2009 08:28 PM by Frank.)

(10-16-2009 05:34 AM)mario Wrote: 68% is not 72% perhaps because in the first step you calculated 25% and I thought this:
in the first step I have the formulas:
- =HYPGEOMDIST(1,2,7,49) for one number and must add
- =HYPGEOMDIST(2,2,7,49) for hit 2 numbers and also is a favorable case

so I obtain in first step more than you 0.25+ 0.017857 = 0.267857

and so on in final for step 4 obtain 0.7126 or almost 72%
similarly for step 14 the probability grow up.

In fact this formulas show us a good probability and a pair can play for 16 steps with 99% probabilities!!!

Incredible and even so in this condition is hard to remain with moneys!
Why?
So I saw can exist series of win with length 8-10 and in that time you can acumulate a good amount but even so appear an exception and lost a big part of amount. It's a hard play. Perhaps exist a strategy and a management of stakes, this is what we must discover!

Mario the image I posted was not a calculation, it was ACTUAL results from an example pair in UK lotto history. Had I used a different pair that 68% might have been 75% and had I done 1176 pairs they would have averaged out to 72%.

My calculation uses the probability of 'not success' for either of a pair (0.732143 calculated earlier) and then uses BINOMDIST(S,S,0.732143 ,FALSE) in the middle column ( to work out the diminishing chance of a fail)
where S is the step number row by row, so you get:-

[Image: k1c11e.gif]

so the last row middle formula would be =BINOMDIST(20,20,0.732143 ,FALSE)

The right hand red column is 1-(P) in each middle column and is the increasing probability of success of at least one of a pair, which are the figures we are intersted in draw by draw corresponding to actual results. My calculated results are the same as yours as far as yours go... Ylsuper

Edit

Quote:So I saw can exist series of win with length 8-10 and in that time you can acumulate a good amount but even so appear an exception and lost a big part of amount. It's a hard play. Perhaps exist a strategy and a management of stakes, this is what we must discover!

I can't remember now what strategy you are using (please remind me so I don't have to search for it), but all this analysis only covers the case of betting on 2 numbers separately (for each