Catchalotto

[Frank]

The curious thing about the Bulgarian repeat is that it was a direct repeat in consecutive draws, which depending on how you look at it has different probabilities. The mathematics of repeats above is not for consecutive repeats, but for any repeat from any draw to any another. In one sense it supports the figures because it was a repeat (if you are asking the question what is the probability of a repeat in the period draw 1 to present) but if you ask the question what is the probability of a consecutive repeat, thats a different question with a different answer.

Out of interest one can read off from the curve the probability of a lotto result NOT repeating, hence (by subtracting from 100%) the probability of at least one repeat over N draws.



Interesting points are :-
15% at 2132 draws
20% at 2500 draws
33.33% at 3370 draws
50% at 4404 draws

A 15% chance of a repeat result is not insignificant, and is only a couple of years away.