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Remember the Anselm challenge?
10-03-2016, 12:34 AM (This post was last modified: 10-03-2016 12:53 AM by ragnorak.)
Post: #1
Remember the Anselm challenge?
I fondly recall when we would compete to see who could match the most winning numbers by picking 16. As I remember, it went on for years and only one player ever managed to get all 6 and it was on her first try! I myself got 5 numbers once or twice as did a few others.

Well, I have something similar going on now at my site which I installed there at the end of last month. It's a little different - you pick 12 numbers instead of 16, and there is a specially-designed feature for it rather than just posting in a forum. It's almost all automatic: I only need to enter the winning numbers after each draw, and the script instantly lists the winners and displays the result.

It's free to play obviously in terms of cash, but there is a actually a cash prize of £100 to make it interesting which I'm offering myself for matching all six main numbers (which I would pay by Western Union or donate to a chosen charity). You do need to use on-site currency known as 'pluses' to play your 12 numbers. These pluses are earned on the site through activity such as chatting, making posts, or winning contests that are arranged by staff and other members. You can also receive pluses as a gift, and anyone here may tell me their chosen nickname to receive enough pluses from me to play our lottery game for 6 months (probably much longer as you can win back your pluses stake by matching just 2 numbers).

All you need to do is register, then upon login select the version for smartphones and desktop browsers, and then click Shop from the main menu and you'll see the Lottery Ticket option on the next page.

Oh you'll probably need the link to my site for that too Shy But I'll only share it if those here still want to play.

Coincidence is God's way of remaining anonymous - Albert Einstein
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11-03-2016, 12:49 PM
Post: #2
RE: Remember the Anselm challenge?
Yes, we all remember the Anselm challenge, and for a few years up to two years ago we had our own challenge here when the Lotto was still 6/49. Our challenge was for 21 numbers but you had to put them in order of priority, and your score was adjusted for any matches and weighted higher for your higher priority balls. You got 21 points if your first ball hit, 20 points for your second ball etc.

The problem for only 12 balls on a 659 matrix lottery is that its a double whammy against you for the odds. When we did the Anselm challenge with 16 balls the theoretical 'norm' was for your average score to be 1.959 based on one point per ball hit. Now that the odds are tripled and the ball numbers in your entry are reduced, the average score for your challenge is 1.220.
I think your £100 is pretty safe given the 37% increase in difficulty, according to my calculations. I'm not sure I'd want to play with so few balls. I say this after just completing a challenge in the Google RGL group. In that challenge they had 24 balls, you had to have them in priority order, and I came second bottom out of about a dozen players. If truth be told there is not enough history to the 659 lottery for my system to be any use, and I'd be surprised to hear that anyone elses system can truly work after only 44 draws.

I did some recent research on cycle lengths (including bonus) for the 6/59 format (a cycle being a period in draws for all 59 balls to come out), and I concluded:-

The average cycle length was 37 draws
max= 68 draws
min 21 draws
median= 35.5 draws
mode 33 draws.
The only useful information from this is that The UK lotto current first cycle is on draw 44, and number 45 is the only ball left to complete the cycle.
Over the last 23 draws the rate of drawing of undrawn balls has been:-
3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.

when will 45 be drawn? Anybody's guess.

From my skip monitoring, the most common attained skip (before appearance) is zero (thats when a number repeats directly to the next draw) 11.8% of the time, and the next most common attained skip is 3 (miss 3 draws) at 9.2%. I need more data on the UK lotto really.

I'll have a raincheck on playing your game Ragnorak, maybe later. Icon_smile
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20-03-2016, 06:38 PM
Post: #3
RE: Remember the Anselm challenge?
(11-03-2016 12:49 PM)Frank Wrote:  The problem for only 12 balls on a 659 matrix lottery is that its a double whammy against you for the odds. When we did the Anselm challenge with 16 balls the theoretical 'norm' was for your average score to be 1.959 based on one point per ball hit. Now that the odds are tripled and the ball numbers in your entry are reduced, the average score for your challenge is 1.220.
I think your £100 is pretty safe given the 37% increase in difficulty, according to my calculations. I'm not sure I'd want to play with so few balls. I say this after just completing a challenge in the Google RGL group. In that challenge they had 24 balls, you had to have them in priority order, and I came second bottom out of about a dozen players. If truth be told there is not enough history to the 659 lottery for my system to be any use, and I'd be surprised to hear that anyone elses system can truly work after only 44 draws.
If we've learned one thing from the lottery, it's that no matter how high the odds, if enough people are playing for long enough then someone will win. It's a fair point though that on a smaller scale with a dozen or so people playing, matching 6 out of 12 could take several years as the odds are 48,764 to 1. When designing this game I was trying to make the prize structure nice and simple while maintaining just a small house edge, and of course I didn't want my £100 to be too easy to win by chance! So 12 numbers struck me as the right balance. However I think there's room to make it a bit more interesting so I added an extra prize for matching 5 plus the bonus which includes £75 cash. Already one member has matched 4 numbers after just a few weeks of the game, so I think it's doable!

I'm not so sure that adding 10 balls to the lottery requires a complete reset of statistics, it just means you have to do a bit of work to adjust for the differences. For example if a pair of numbers hasn't appeared for a few years, then for all the draws up to 2065 we can count it as 1 time overdue for every 78.4 draws, and for draws 2066 onwards it's an additional 1 time overdue for every 114.1 draws. Add those together and you've got an item that incorporates both 6/49 and 6/59 results. It may be a little more complicated depending on the type of statistics you're doing of course.

Coincidence is God's way of remaining anonymous - Albert Einstein
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21-03-2016, 02:42 PM
Post: #4
RE: Remember the Anselm challenge?
Yes, I'm sure you are right if you like faffing about with obscure statistics. That is a particular talent you have which I envy. I still have in my portfolio a spreadsheet inspired by you in May 2005 when you made the following statement:- This set of 22 numbers has not matched 6 main balls since draw 55 :- 03 04 05 09 10 23 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 48 49.

At the time we were on something like draw 980 ! All this without a spreadsheet, just using pencil and paper ! How on earth .... ? Not that knowing that did me any good at all ..Crazy The idea did lead to a good "reduced set" back checker though.

I like to to keep things clean and simple and a new broom sweeps clean. I've abandoned my website since the change, too much like hard work to update all the software, plus I'm getting too old for this game.

I do think the new odds on the 659 lotto make life hard enough, without involving data from a different matrix to complicate it, so I made the right decision for me.

Regards,

Frank
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